Santa Claus Rally

Posted on December 8, 2011 by Gary

Market participants often talk about the Christmas rally, or some call it the Santa rally. This talk came about because of a perceived tendency for the market to rally in December. This is understandable because in the 41 years since 1970, December has been a positive month 30 times, or around 73% of the time.

In that time there has been 26 up years and 15 down years. If the year was up, then December was up 23 out of those 26 years, or around 88% of the time. However , in the down years, December was up only 7 out of 15 times or around 47% of the time.

The figures stack up much the same for the 61 Years since 1950. December was an up month around 74% of the time. However if the preceding 11 months were down then the Santa rally happens only around 52% of the time.

So unfortunately, just when you really need the Santa Rally, it is the least likely to arrive.

Daily Performance based on the Day of the Week

Posted on September 9, 2011 by Gary

Further to the previous post; what is the strongest day of the week for the stockmarket?

The graph below indicates that over 3 decades Wednesday was the strongest, and Thursday the next best. Tuesday is the stand out worst.

The Tuesday average may have been distorted somewhat by the 1987 stockmarket crash which happened, in Australia, on Tuesday 20 October 1987. However, we did test the data with that day taken out, and it was still the worst day of the week.

Day of the Month Performance of the Stock Market

Posted on September 7, 2011 by Gary

Ever wondered what day of the month was the stongest? or the weakest? In the graph below we chart the performance of the stockmarket based on the day of the month over 3 decades beginning with the 1980′s.

Historically it appears that the best days are the first 3 days of the month, the 14th to 19th, and the last 3 days of the month.

Could this be related to when money flows in to the market? Or is it just random movements.

All Ordinaries – Average Monthly Performance

Posted on September 5, 2011 by Gary

It is impossible to predict what the stockmarket will do over any period of time. However looking at historical stock index data may give us an idea of what is possible.

In the chart below we examine monthly moves in the Australian All Ordinaries Index over 4 decades since the 1970′s. The 2010′s was not included as we do not believe there is enough data from this decade to provide a meaningful average.

From the graph, we can see that historically September, on average, has not been a good month for investors.

Hello world!

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Gary

Welcome to stockindex.com.au. We hope that you find our articles interesting and informative. Please keep coming back to our site as we will be frequently adding new articles.

Comments are welcome. Ideas for new research articles will also be welcome.

Best wishes,

The Stock Index team!